Ongoing resaerch projects in SAMSI Program on Model Uncertainty.
To be announced in May, 2019.
In fall 2018, I mainly focused on input distribution subgroup demonstrated my initial exploratory analysis of KE synthetic storm tracks, and compared the simulated tracks with the real IBTrack storm data. One of the main discussions in this semester is how to improve the current practice with the technique of spatial statistics, such as using hierarchical model to improve the estimation of input distribution, or spatial-temporal point process modeling for the storm occurrence rate. Diverse existing projects giving by different researchers are shared and discussed in weekly group meetings.
For spring 2019, we will (1.) Measure the model of storm evolution (e.g. the sudden change of the characteristics when the storms landed based on the coastline and how simulation data handle this); (2.) Think about how to impose some structure to improve the estimation concerning input distribution.
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